We've Lost the Plot with Kon

Kon Knuppel is having a great rookie season, do not get it twisted. Maybe even ROY. But all of the sudden we’re having discussions on All-NBA or a generational prospect. This is beyond insane. He has surpassed rookie expectations. This is whilst his team has had its healthiest season.

Knueppel is the product of genuine talent but also a team built to support him. The 3pt stats everyone talks about are great, but propped up by a LaMelo Ball having his healthiest season, Miller taking up defensive attention, Bridges having a decent year¹, Diabate and Kalkbrenner, and having partially experienced the Cold Fusion that is Collin Sexton.

I believe we are hovering the 90% mark of Knueppel, that is Duncan Robinson or Malik Beasley with a slight edge in ball movement. I could even see a Desmond Bane outcome. That’s unbelievable as a rookie! Approaching Sixth Man of the Year, maybe an All-Star appearance or two. The discourse around him feels like the perception is going to falter in the coming years towards Tyreke Evans² as growth stagnates.

My reasons for that are due to game tape I’ve seen and a bit of historical review.

The top historical rookie leaders in 3pt makes, excluding Knueppel, are the following:

1. Keegan Murray
2. Donovan Mitchell
3. Damian Lillard
4. Brandon Miller
5. Saddiq Bey
6. Anthony Edwards
7. Luka Doncic
8. Landry Shamet
9. Steph Curry
10. Kyle Kuzma

Knueppel breaks this record by a pretty sizeable 50+ makes. Looking at the list, we can start to gather how someone was able to do that. Keegan Murray was an always ready shooter who benefited from a fast pace Kings offense. Mitchell became the focal point of the offense almost immediately. Same goes for Lillard. Miller was thrust into that position by a hospital squad Hornets. I barely knew what happened with Bey, he is forever an enigma³ to me. Antman is a flamethrower. Luka is Luka. Shamet was one of the only shooters on a 76ers team trying to compete. Steph was in an era where deep midranges ruled the shot chart. Kuzma was a needed offensive option on a tanking Lakers with Lonzo.

Not a single player on this list had the luxury of being an auxiliary scorer, having an elite passer, AND playing in the 3pt era that we are in now. None of these players had a LaMelo. Knueppel is assisted on his 3pt attempts higher than seven of the top ten above (Murray, Bey, and Shamet were higher). From this year, the runner up in 3pt makes (VJ Edgecombe⁴) has a 10% decrease in the percentage of threes assisted. Few had multiple quality scorers to take the heat off of them. What we’re witnessing is a great* shooter surrounded by a good, fast-paced, well coached* team that lets them just do their job. Shoot and be a connective tissue. They let him crash the glass with his size so that the bigs can focus on creating rebound opportunities and make up for the team’s perimeter defensive limitations. This is shown by his 24% contested rebound percentage, putting him with the likes of guards Shaedon Sharpe and Quentin Grimes. Players whose roles are to get buckets and not particularly trusted with securing boards in most circumstances, but are capable from time-to-time.

Speaking of which, the reports of Knueppel’s defense are greatly exaggerated. He’s a solidly below average defender and it’s okay to say that. He’s not catastrophic which is always great for your shooter⁵, but he’s not “good”. He can’t slide his feet and he’s pretty damn slow in a straight line. He uses his game recognition to attempt to be in the right place and his position size to avoid being backed all the way to the paint. The defense becomes a more effortful 2019 James Harden. Better, but problematic nonetheless. Teams have gone far with lesser spacing players, don't get me wrong. The new comparisons are Klay Thompson, who at his peak was an All-Defense player trusted to guard positions 1-4 throughout any game. We haven't even fully proven that Knueppel is the shooter that Thompson is/was, nonetheless capable of being the defender Thompson has been.

To conclude my rant, Kon Knueppel is having a fantastic season and nothing can take away from that. I'm just hesistant on him as "up-next".

PAQ (Potentially Asked Questions)

Am I a Hater?

• I don’t know, maybe? I’m genuinely not sure.

Should He Be ROY?

• It could go either way with Flagg or Knueppel. Don’t think there’s a wrong choice this season.